Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
70 0x70e1…1fdb other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$104 (+8%) realized +$105 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$52
14 days+$101
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$40
other 31% +$181
sports 16% −$20
crypto 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.5% +14.4% 45% 45% +21.6%
≤30d 21 +33.0% +20.3% 48% 48% +25.6%
≤90d 28 +33.4% +20.7% 50% 46% +21.9%
all 48 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 44% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 44% -0.7%
10% -2.8% 44% -10.2%
15% -12.2% 44% -18.9%
20% -20.8% 38% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 58
History coverage152d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$14 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$32 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$9 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $50 −$22 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $40 −$29 -72%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $40 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $30 +$118 +392%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $8 +$17 +212%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 11 $30 −$12 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $97 +$44 +46%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $31 +$67 +217%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $28 +$3 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $40 +$21 +51%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $20 −$2 -12%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Brentford FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $9 +$10 +113%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jan 31 $10 +$26 +257%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $10 +$14 +144%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $10 +$6 +61%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $20 +$11 +54%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jan 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $28 +$37 +133%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 25 $30 −$4 -13%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Israel or the US target Tehran? Jan 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $21 +$19 +89%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $47 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $20 12h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $44 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. BUY 5¢ $10 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 13¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 43¢ $25 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $15 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 9d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 9d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.07 · official $119.07 · 113 history records