Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70e0…6821
sports · 546 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,011 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$983 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$156
Realized−$983
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses207 / 329
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions10
Markets (closed)536 / 546
History coverage67d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 10 History 536 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $16 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-86%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway Norway 14¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 DN SOOPers 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$4 +47%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $35 −$5 -13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $20 +$2 +10%
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$23 -45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $10 +$9 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $26 −$25 -97%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 29 $19 −$19 -98%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 28 $30 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $20 +$5 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dynasty vs Once Upon A Team (BO3) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 22 $5 +$8 +158%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 21 $15 +$64 +429%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 21 $15 +$50 +335%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 17 $35 +$4 +11%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $15 +$5 +34%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anna Kelly be the first substitute White House Press Secretary? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $66 −$58 -87%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 14 $40 +$6 +16%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? May 12 $20 +$1 +3%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? May 03 $20 $0 -1%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 03 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $25 −$2 -6%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 01 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$159
world 8% −$362
other 6% −$128
tech 3% −$261
crypto 2% −$48
politics 1% −$18
finance 0% −$13
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 45h
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 45h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $16 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $22 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 7d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $14 7d
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 10d
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 12¢ $5 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 14d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway BUY Norway 14¢ $4 15d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway BUY Norway 14¢ $15 15d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 15d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 15d
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 15d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 15d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 15d
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia BUY Norway 53¢ $30 16d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY 9z 80¢ $20 16d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $25 22d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships BUY PARIVISION 21¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.9% +5.8% 50% 50% -12.0%
≤30d 37 -24.8% -32.0% 35% 30% -21.6%
≤90d 536 -12.6% -20.9% 39% 35% -18.1%
all 536 -12.6% -20.9% 39% 35% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 35% -18.1%
10% -28.5% 31% -25.9%
15% -35.4% 28% -33.1%
20% -41.7% 24% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.59 · official $155.85 (match) · 1574 history records