Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70de…a73d sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-6%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%24W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$21
other 19% −$22
world 10% +$19
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 82% 55% -6.4%
≤30d 13 -6.0% -14.9% 77% 46% -11.9%
≤90d 13 -6.0% -14.9% 77% 46% -11.9%
all 30 -6.9% -15.8% 80% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 30% -15.5%
10% -23.8% 17% -23.6%
15% -31.2% 7% -31.0%
20% -37.9% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses24 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage126d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Canada 95¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) Jun 28 $25 +$3 +12%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $25 $0 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $21 +$3 +16%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $16 +$5 +32%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $13 +$3 +24%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Sebastian Korda vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $42 +$19 +45%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-22? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 0 Torino FC? Mar 21 $20 +$2 +8%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Getafe CF: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $5 $0 +6%
Kigali 2: Corentin Denolly vs Zdenek Kolar Mar 12 $28 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Grou Mar 12 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Mar 12 $5 $0 +9%
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 Mar 12 $5 $0 +3%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $4 +$1 +23%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 22 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Canada 95¢ $28 1h
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) SELL Shanghai Shenhua FC 100¢ $28 6h
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) BUY Shanghai Shenhua FC 89¢ $25 9h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $25 24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $21 47h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 2d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $16 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $13 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $13 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $12 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $11 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 8d
Sebastian Korda vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 89¢ $20 96d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 99d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 99d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 99d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $37 99d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 99d
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 0 Torino FC? SELL No 97¢ $5 99d
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 0 Torino FC? SELL No 97¢ $16 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.55 · official $28.55 (match) · 82 history records