Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70dc…1dfd sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,547 (+20%) realized +$30,962 · open −$415
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%71W / 43L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,324per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$1,902est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18,207
7 days+$25,901
14 days+$30,749
30 days+$30,749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$28,174
crypto 5% +$551
other 1% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +8.0% -2.2% 61% 61% +10.4%
≤30d 76 +6.6% -3.5% 62% 62% +10.9%
≤90d 114 +3.3% -6.5% 62% 61% +7.8%
all 114 +3.3% -6.5% 62% 61% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 61% +7.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 53% -2.5%
15% -23.6% 43% -11.9%
20% -31.1% 34% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,191) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,001 vs −$981 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2,009
Realized+$30,962
Unrealized−$415
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses71 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,902
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1,324
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 52¢ 52¢ $2,028 $2,008 −$20 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 0¢ $396 $1 −$395 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $14 +$11 +76%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $441 −$436 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $613 +$245 +40%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $322 +$778 +242%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2,362 +$1,638 +69%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $292 +$308 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,191 +$622 +52%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $461 +$216 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13,800 +$14,154 +103%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5,167 −$5,067 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12,167 +$6,921 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,255 −$3,205 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $484 +$453 +94%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $891 +$977 +110%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $623 +$591 +95%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,919 +$1,141 +60%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $986 −$972 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 12 $3,735 −$3,690 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 12 $502 −$495 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $2,560 +$2,242 +88%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $4,531 +$3,224 +71%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $1,157 +$688 +60%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $3,606 −$3,574 -99%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $960 −$950 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $5,315 +$3,381 +64%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $654 −$652 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $1,591 −$1,561 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $744 −$739 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $218 +$181 +83%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $310 +$490 +158%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $657 +$343 +52%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 10 $2,839 +$9,929 +350%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $5,976 +$1,070 +18%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $9 +$7 +74%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 10 $867 −$847 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $2,073 −$2,025 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 10 $1,074 −$1,074 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 10 $58 −$57 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $88 −$85 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $59 −$57 -97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 10 $7,124 −$7,030 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $896 −$277 -31%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $244 +$65 +27%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $640 +$469 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $3,138 +$466 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $778 +$100 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $67 +$13 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 09 $1,046 +$309 +30%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 09 $674 +$226 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $2,057 33m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $405 57m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 61¢ $441 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 56¢ $14 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 73¢ $8 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 73¢ $14 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 73¢ $21 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 71¢ $570 2h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 29¢ $193 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $170 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $117 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $12 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $54 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $100 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $54 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $33 2h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 29¢ $124 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $292 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $1,822 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,191 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $426 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $27 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $428 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $202 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $2,162 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $4 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,009.40 · official $2,017.50 (match) · 681 history records