Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70d9…706c crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$335 (+5%) realized +$340 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%57W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days+$128
14 days+$128
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$83
other 15% −$186
world 3% +$54
weather 2% −$134
sports 2% +$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -10.4% -19.0% 24% 24% +2.9%
≤30d 45 -10.4% -19.0% 24% 24% +2.9%
≤90d 130 -4.8% -13.8% 44% 42% -6.2%
all 130 -4.8% -13.8% 44% 42% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 42% -6.2%
10% -22.1% 38% -15.2%
15% -29.6% 32% -23.4%
20% -36.5% 26% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$36 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized+$340
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses57 / 73
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)130 / 138
History coverage43d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$106 +344%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $34 +$148 +437%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$119 +388%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $41 −$32 -78%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$5 -13%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $36 −$22 -61%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$13 -65%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$5 -34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $141 +$102 +72%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $96 −$78 -81%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$3 -11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $41 +$114 +280%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$121 +786%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $77 +$35 +46%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 22 $26 −$21 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 21 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 21 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 21 $25 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 13h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 13h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 17¢ $30 14h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $35 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.06 · official $245.06 (match) · 396 history records