Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

70 0x70d9…a572 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$107 (+30%) realized +$107 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-27.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-19.9%	-27.5%	42%	42%	+20.5%
≤30d	19	-19.9%	-27.5%	42%	42%	+20.5%
≤90d	19	-19.9%	-27.5%	42%	42%	+20.5%
all	19	-19.9%	-27.5%	42%	42%	+20.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.5%	42%	+20.5%
10%	-34.4%	42%	+9.0%
15%	-40.8%	42%	-1.6%
20%	-46.6%	37%	-11.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$8 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$107

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage6d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	60¢	62¢	$30	$31	+$1 (+2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	24¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$31	−$31	-98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$30	+$45	+152%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$2	-50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$30	+$18	+61%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$14	+$11	+73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$16	−$16	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$30	+$35	+114%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$31	+$18	+56%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$4	-97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$25	+$16	+62%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$30	+$12	+41%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$30	+$35	+114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$30	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	47¢	$31	11h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$2	22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	21¢	$5	22h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	22h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	39¢	$30	22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	SELL Côte dIvoire	96¢	$48	28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	39h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	59¢	$30	39h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$14	3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$16	3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	46¢	$30	4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Jordan	89¢	$49	4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	56¢	$31	4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$41	5d
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL Senegal	86¢	$43	5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	5d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	60¢	$30	5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$25	5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Cabo Verde	100¢	$65	6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	46¢	$30	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.15 · official $40.15 (match) · 31 history records