Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

70 0x70d9…7d79 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$60 (+112%) realized +$62 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +170% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +126% what you keep after slip

Net edge+126%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+144.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+170.3%	+144.6%	33%	33%	+324.0%
≤30d	3	+170.3%	+144.6%	33%	33%	+324.0%
≤90d	3	+170.3%	+144.6%	33%	33%	+324.0%
all	3	+170.3%	+144.6%	33%	33%	+324.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+144.6%	33%	+324.0%
10%	+121.2%	33%	+283.4%
15%	+99.8%	33%	+246.4%
20%	+80.2%	33%	+212.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +369% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +170% · $-wt +369% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$4 · ×19.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.73 per $1 lost it wins $9.73

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$33

Realized+$62

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)3 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Over	61¢	62¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	12¢	10¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-19%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	4¢	3¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$10	+$73	+711%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	12¢	$4	3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $33.33 (match) · 11 history records