trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$289 | +710883% |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$18 | +8266% |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election | Jun 12 | $988 | −$987 | -100% |
| Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | Jun 12 | $50 | +$64 | +127% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day | Jun 12 | $2,004 | −$1,991 | -99% |
| Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $344 | −$335 | -97% |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 12 | $294 | −$71 | -24% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $302 | −$204 | -67% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +467.4% | +413.3% | 38% | 38% | -89.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +467.4% | +413.3% | 38% | 38% | -89.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +467.4% | +413.3% | 38% | 38% | -89.5% |
| all | 8 | +467.4% | +413.3% | 38% | 38% | -89.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +413.3% | 38% | -89.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +364.2% | 38% | -90.5% |
| 15% | +319.4% | 38% | -91.4% |
| 20% | +278.3% | 38% | -92.2% |