Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
70 0x70d9…f30d world 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-13%) realized −$135 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 164d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$106
other 42% −$208
politics 8% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +156.4% +132.0% 100% 100% +132.0%
all 4 -35.9% -42.0% 25% 25% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 25% -42.0%
10% -47.6% 25% -47.6%
15% -52.6% 25% -52.6%
20% -57.3% 25% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +156% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$100 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$773
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage164d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $100 $285 +$185 (+185%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $200 $117 −$83 (-42%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
EU dissolves before 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 14 $100 +$156 +156%
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? Jan 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 33d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 91d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 114d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 114d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 155d
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? BUY No 0¢ $100 161d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 163d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 163d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.43 · official $773.43 (match) · 92 history records