Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
70 0x70d9…1bf9 crypto 80 markets active 3h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%75W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$1
world 30% −$1
other 13% $0
economics 3% −$5
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 60 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 79 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses75 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage125d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 6? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 1? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Mar 31 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 36h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $15 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $17 12d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $19 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY No 100¢ $9 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $14 27d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $9 34d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? BUY No 99¢ $10 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $7 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $15 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.93 · official $20.93 (match) · 165 history records