Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70d6…7988 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$40
sports 26% −$22
culture 7% −$8
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage137d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $771 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $740 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $632 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $604 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $454 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $397 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $289 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $542 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $290 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $470 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $615 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $138 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $292 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $323 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $267 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $458 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $137 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $324 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 5h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 7h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 8h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 10h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 11h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 14h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 16h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 17h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 23h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 24h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 32h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 39h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 42h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 44h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 45h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 47h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.91 · official $58.91 (match) · 1466 history records