Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70d2…5967 other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,125 (+0%) realized +$1,125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%29W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,748per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$52
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$190
politics 38% −$109
sports 11% +$1,398
economics 2% −$5
culture 2% −$7
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -5.3% -14.3% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 85 -12.8% -21.1% 5% 1% -9.9%
all 138 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 9% -9.1%
10% -18.3% 9% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 9% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,558) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$9 · ×8.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses29 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,748
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 22 $2,557 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $953 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $954 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $427 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $2,686 −$4 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 15 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,502 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,493 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,790 −$7 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3,223 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,513 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,238 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6,168 −$10 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $6,006 −$7 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,034 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,694 −$6 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,178 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $4,227 −$6 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $315 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,975 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,862 −$5 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,557 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $61 +$75 +124%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,374 −$4 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $3,391 −$5 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 19 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,261 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $2,641 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,569 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $3,258 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $7,611 −$8 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $3,289 −$4 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,172 19m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,174 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $951 40h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $953 42h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $952 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $954 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,013 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,014 4d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $1,315 5d
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $1,317 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,094 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,095 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $1,226 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,227 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,210 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,211 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,140 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $427 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,224 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,226 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,376 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,378 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $911 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $912 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,667 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,670 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records