Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70d0…918e crypto 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$298 (-8%) realized +$203 · open −$501
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%54W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$184
14 days−$279
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$953
other 2% −$22
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +44.4% +30.7% 40% 40% -47.5%
≤30d 26 +37.6% +24.5% 35% 35% -29.5%
≤90d 167 -22.6% -30.0% 32% 26% -32.3%
all 167 -22.6% -30.0% 32% 26% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 26% -32.3%
10% -36.7% 23% -38.7%
15% -42.8% 19% -44.7%
20% -48.4% 14% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$501
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses54 / 113
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)167 / 174
History coverage77d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $80 $62 −$18 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $189 $18 −$171 (-90%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $100 $14 −$86 (-86%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $221 $4 −$217 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$39 +371%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$9 +445%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 26 $146 −$86 -59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 24 $27 +$31 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 23 $100 −$76 -76%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 23 $117 −$77 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $85 −$80 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $11 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $52 +$58 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $11 +$51 +482%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $15 −$12 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$8 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$42 +796%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 30 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 30 $11 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $21 +$19 +88%
Bitcoin above 77,400 on May 26, 10AM ET? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9AM ET May 26 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $13 −$7 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2PM ET May 25 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 25 $8 +$1 +13%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET May 25 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin above 77,800 on May 25, 11AM ET? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 10AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $96 20m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $81 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $128 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 5¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $79 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 43¢ $128 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $84 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $86 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $77 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $43 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $94 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $238 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.43 · official $213.43 (match) · 648 history records