Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x70cf…3149 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$260 (+7%) realized +$261 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate75%36W / 12L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$56
other 1% −$6
sports 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 52% -7.9%
≤30d 48 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 52% -7.9%
≤90d 48 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 52% -7.9%
all 48 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 52% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 52% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 31% -16.7%
15% -23.2% 23% -24.8%
20% -30.7% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$44 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses36 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $154 −$98 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $106 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$58 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $227 −$115 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.32 · official $20.32 (match) · 118 history records