Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
70 0x70cf…8251 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$1
sports 24% $0
other 21% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 0% -9.1%
all 37 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage285d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 72¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $68 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $33 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 24 $1 $0 +25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 06 $34 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 08 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 42h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $39 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $39 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $33 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $32 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $11 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $24 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $34 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.80 · official $34.80 (match) · 120 history records