Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70cd…7119 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-51%) realized −$99 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$110
sports 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.5% -31.7% 20% 20% -65.3%
≤30d 10 -24.5% -31.7% 20% 20% -65.3%
≤90d 10 -24.5% -31.7% 20% 20% -65.3%
all 10 -24.5% -31.7% 20% 20% -65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 20% -65.3%
10% -38.2% 20% -68.6%
15% -44.2% 20% -71.7%
20% -49.6% 10% -74.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$26 +510%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.58 · official $23.58 (match) · 14 history records