Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
70 0x70cc…ebcf politics 20 markets active 4d ago coverage 597d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27,107 (-73%) realized −$27,084 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,860per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$16,058
sports 21% −$7,975
other 10% −$3,394
tech 1% +$386
economics 0% −$73
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -83.1% -84.7% 0% 0% -69.7%
≤30d 2 -83.1% -84.7% 0% 0% -69.7%
≤90d 2 -83.1% -84.7% 0% 0% -69.7%
all 18 +43.2% +29.6% 17% 17% -75.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.6% 17% -75.8%
10% ← realistic here +17.2% 17% -78.1%
15% +5.9% 17% -80.2%
20% -4.5% 17% -82.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,566) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -54% → late +141% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$1,847 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$27,084
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage597d
Avg bet$1,860
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $74 $52 −$22 (-29%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $108 −$72 -66%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $1,990 −$1,976 -99%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 06 $7,975 −$7,975 -100%
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? Mar 16 $1,326 −$1,326 -100%
Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1? Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? Jan 24 $521 +$386 +74%
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? Jan 21 $100 +$190 +190%
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1? Jan 21 $3 +$47 +1568%
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 21 $12,094 −$7,166 -59%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Jan 20 $17 −$3 -15%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 20 $175 −$68 -39%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $2,566 −$528 -21%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 29 $3,040 −$1,598 -53%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $7,085 −$6,985 -99%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? Nov 07 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes $37 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $89 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $19 9d
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL Yes $14 353d
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes $990 353d
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes $1,000 355d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 25¢ $7,975 442d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 46¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 21¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 15¢ $10 512d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 48¢ $866 513d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 35¢ $50 513d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 35¢ $10 513d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 35¢ $100 513d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 35¢ $100 513d
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal? BUY No 35¢ $100 513d
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? SELL No 99¢ $609 514d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.70 · official $60.70 (match) · 106 history records