Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70cb…99eb
other · 25 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$19 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$59
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)12 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 13 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 40¢ 39¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Over 98¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Yes 39¢ 19¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$15 -73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $80 +$21 +26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -73%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $6 −$3 -54%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $27 +$8 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $38 +$6 +16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$38
other 45% −$10
politics 4% −$8
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $10 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $8 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 8h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 21¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 75¢ $20 19h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 40¢ $10 21h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 25h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $80 40h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $2 44h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 44h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $35 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 47h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $27 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $38 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $2 3d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤90d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -2.4%
all 12 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 50% -2.4%
10% -23.4% 33% -11.8%
15% -30.8% 0% -20.3%
20% -37.6% 0% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.27 · official $59.27 (match) · 42 history records