Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70ca…2443
other · 378 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,338 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,179 · open −$136
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,759
Realized−$1,179
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses65 / 150
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions163
Markets (closed)215 / 378
History coverage35d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 163 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$304
14 days+$258
30 days−$1,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $723 $1,290 +$567 (+78%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $1,115 $1,190 +$75 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $498 $492 −$6 (-1%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 79¢ 95¢ $397 $473 +$76 (+19%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $447 $357 −$90 (-20%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $648 $283 −$365 (-56%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $300 $256 −$44 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $267 $254 −$13 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $248 $254 +$6 (+3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $216 $201 −$15 (-7%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $135 $103 −$32 (-24%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $104 $99 −$5 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 26¢ 40¢ $53 $81 +$28 (+53%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 39¢ 80¢ $40 $81 +$41 (+104%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $90 $77 −$14 (-15%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $72 $73 +$2 (+2%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 65¢ 71¢ $65 $71 +$6 (+9%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $67 $68 +$2 (+2%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $71 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $50 $64 +$15 (+29%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $52 $57 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $151 −$19 -13%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$92 +442%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 13 $31 −$5 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $30 −$21 -70%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$9 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $898 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $339 −$46 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $329 −$53 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $43 +$9 +21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $310 −$87 -28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $91 +$20 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $81 +$20 +24%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$16 -31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$32 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $6 $0 -8%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 06 $184 +$6 +3%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 06 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 06 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $235 +$786 +334%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% −$741
other 32% −$498
politics 14% +$189
sports 4% −$164
tech 2% +$3
crypto 2% −$30
finance 2% −$42
economics 0% −$12
culture 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $74 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $414 14m
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $13 56m
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $9 56m
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 8¢ $8 59m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $94 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $55 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 24h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 26h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $68 32h
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? BUY Yes 79¢ $81 32h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 32h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 32h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 32h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 32h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 32h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 22¢ $22 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 32h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $35 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -30.0% -36.6% 23% 15% -19.6%
≤30d 209 -24.2% -31.5% 30% 20% -17.7%
≤90d 215 -24.8% -31.9% 30% 20% -17.8%
all 215 -24.8% -31.9% 30% 20% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 20% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 17% -25.6%
15% -44.4% 14% -32.8%
20% -49.8% 11% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,759.38 · official $8,738.41 (match) · 1261 history records