Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70c9…caf5 sports 192 markets active 9h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,785 (-3%) realized −$6,559 · open +$774
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate74%136W / 47L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$990per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$964est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$8,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$648
7 days+$3,682
14 days+$3,682
30 days−$6,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$9,045
other 27% +$1,396
politics 3% +$1,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +32.7% +20.1% 77% 77% +18.4%
≤30d 23 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 57% -31.5%
≤90d 183 +0.6% -9.0% 74% 54% -13.1%
all 183 +0.6% -9.0% 74% 54% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 54% -13.1%
10% -17.7% 42% -21.4%
15% -25.7% 30% -29.0%
20% -33.0% 19% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,010) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$1,041 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$8,074
Realized−$6,559
Unrealized+$774
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses136 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$964
Open positions9
Markets (closed)183 / 192
History coverage69d
Avg bet$990
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $1,500 $2,622 +$1,122 (+75%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $2,000 $2,151 +$151 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $800 $922 +$122 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $400 $534 +$134 (+34%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 20¢ $1,200 $482 −$718 (-60%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $400 $433 +$33 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $500 $427 −$73 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $300 $338 +$38 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,519 +$1,112 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $605 +$240 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $810 +$546 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $406 +$222 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $729 +$512 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $813 +$864 +106%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4,056 −$3,998 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,010 +$528 +52%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $2,018 −$2,000 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez May 22 $1,513 +$592 +39%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $1,509 −$1,500 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $1,502 −$1,500 -100%
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) May 20 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Harold Mayot vs Tomas Barrios May 19 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Yunchaokete Bu May 19 $807 +$352 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Felix Gill May 19 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $1,010 +$470 +47%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $503 +$130 +26%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $805 +$220 +27%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,007 +$292 +29%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Anastasia Zolotareva May 17 $2,001 +$40 +2%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone May 17 $806 +$247 +31%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $503 +$100 +20%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 +$106 +52%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Hugo Gaston May 17 $806 +$233 +29%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas May 17 $527 −$519 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will Paksi FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $505 +$259 +51%
Will Ferencvarosi Budapest win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $502 +$63 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $3,004 +$150 +5%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Quentin Halys May 16 $1,012 +$622 +62%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Titouan Droguet May 16 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $1,214 −$1,200 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $1,210 +$457 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1,519 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,218 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $605 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $810 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,013 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $1,009 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $406 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $729 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $813 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $411 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $411 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $820 13d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,527 13d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 13d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,013 25d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 25d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,029 25d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 26d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $2,018 26d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro BUY Victoria Mboko 63¢ $1,011 26d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien BUY Mariano Navone 60¢ $1,012 26d
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $1,010 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,074.00 · official $8,074.76 (match) · 414 history records