Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70c6…b1a3 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$892 (-34%) realized −$894 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$941
other 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 55 -37.0% -43.0% 44% 36% -43.9%
≤90d 55 -37.0% -43.0% 44% 36% -43.9%
all 55 -37.0% -43.0% 44% 36% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 36% -43.9%
10% -48.5% 25% -49.3%
15% -53.5% 11% -54.2%
20% -58.0% 9% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$40 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$894
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage28d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 30 $41 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 30 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 30 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 23 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 23 $7 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 23 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 23 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 23 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 23 $231 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 23 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 23 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 23 $209 −$31 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $155 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $518 +$115 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 23 $223 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 23 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 23 $127 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 23 $111 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.25 · official $92.25 (match) · 131 history records