Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70c4…e7be sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$71 (+5%) realized +$96 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$110
world 24% +$33
other 17% −$119
politics 4% +$40
tech 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 35% -19.3%
≤30d 17 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 35% -19.3%
≤90d 17 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 35% -19.3%
all 17 -17.3% -25.2% 35% 35% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 35% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 29% -27.1%
15% -38.9% 29% -34.1%
20% -44.9% 24% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$38 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)17 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 52¢ $112 $105 −$7 (-6%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $54 $51 −$2 (-5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $40 $28 −$12 (-31%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Netanyahu out by July 31? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $154 −$106 -69%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 21 $59 +$40 +68%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $45 +$55 +123%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $73 +$32 +44%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $87 −$13 -15%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $134 −$44 -32%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $34 +$66 +197%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $56 +$44 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $325 +$47 +15%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 53m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $113 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $48 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $154 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 71¢ $4 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 99¢ $99 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $44 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 58¢ $59 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 38¢ $75 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $91 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $87 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $134 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $73 12h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $34 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $56 12h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 59¢ $60 12h
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 12h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 12h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 53¢ $3 26h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 32h
Netanyahu out by July 31? BUY Yes $2 32h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.66 · official $284.68 (match) · 56 history records