Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70c4…1008 crypto 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,735 (+1%) realized +$1,728 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate50%235W / 237L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$577per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$237
7 days−$371
14 days−$428
30 days−$5,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$1,661
other 4% −$49
weather 3% −$30
sports 0% −$110
culture 0% +$48
finance 0% −$33
politics 0% −$21
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -12.5% -20.8% 40% 5% -12.3%
≤30d 257 -37.5% -43.4% 27% 5% -36.8%
≤90d 305 -22.3% -29.7% 37% 15% -10.6%
all 472 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 15% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 14% -17.8%
15% -37.5% 13% -25.7%
20% -43.7% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$30 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$1,564
Realized+$1,728
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses235 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)472 / 481
History coverage131d
Avg bet$577
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,339 $1,351 +$11 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $209 $211 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 18? No 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? No 60¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? No 76¢ 69¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Yes 74¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Liban Mohamed be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $32 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $35 −$13 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$9 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $53 −$15 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $78 −$7 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $45 −$18 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$9 -35%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$7 -12%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $177 −$19 -11%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 17 $49 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? Jun 17 $125 −$9 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $89 −$26 -29%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $37 $0 -1%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $30 −$7 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 59¢ $23 11m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $24 11m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 77¢ $41 13m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $43 13m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 83¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? SELL Yes 75¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 75¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 76¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 72¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $209 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $2 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,335 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $1 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 74¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,564.47 · official $1,563.42 (match) · 1947 history records