Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

70 0x70c3…5a8d other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 205d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$49 (-19%) realized −$50 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate48%13W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$9

7 days−$49

14 days−$49

30 days−$49

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-19.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	-7.5%	-16.3%	50%	46%	-28.4%
≤30d	26	-7.5%	-16.3%	50%	46%	-28.4%
≤90d	26	-7.5%	-16.3%	50%	46%	-28.4%
all	27	-10.9%	-19.4%	48%	44%	-28.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.4%	44%	-28.7%
10%	-27.1%	37%	-35.5%
15%	-34.2%	30%	-41.7%
20%	-40.6%	22%	-47.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -31% → late +8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized−$50

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses13 / 14

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)27 / 30

History coverage205d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$3	+26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$9	+$5	+52%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$10	−$1	-11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$11	+$10	+90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1	+$3	+246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$2	+$2	+113%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$5	+$2	+32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+19%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$10	+$1	+6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$8	-79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$20	−$14	-67%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 2+ goals	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$10	+97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$17	+165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$10	+$4	+44%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Nov 24	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	7m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	82¢	$13	21m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$9	56m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	65¢	$9	25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$9	32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$5	41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	17¢	$5	44h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$6	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$4	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$4	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$7	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$1	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	86¢	$5	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$2	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$5	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$11	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	93¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	13¢	$2	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	24¢	$7	3d
Ben Gannon-Doak: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.36 · official $21.36 (match) · 56 history records