Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70c2…4063 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$169 (-12%) realized −$168 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$41
other 9% −$52
weather 9% +$7
politics 7% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 0% -20.3%
≤30d 3 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 0% -20.3%
≤90d 13 -17.4% -25.3% 46% 31% -16.9%
all 18 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 33% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 33% -21.9%
10% -34.4% 17% -29.3%
15% -40.7% 6% -36.2%
20% -46.5% 0% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$41 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage107d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 21? Yes $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June 21? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? Jun 21 $45 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $75 −$46 -61%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 29 $190 −$113 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $100 −$7 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 30? Mar 27 $140 +$24 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? Mar 27 $200 +$92 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $80 +$16 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29? Mar 24 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 11? Mar 12 $60 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 9? Mar 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 9? Mar 09 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 6? Mar 06 $5 −$4 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 1h
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June BUY Yes $2 13h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 53d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 20¢ $77 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? SELL No 83¢ $121 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $93 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $134 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? BUY No 82¢ $120 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 30? SELL No 98¢ $164 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? SELL No 99¢ $292 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? SELL No 100¢ $96 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 30? BUY No 83¢ $140 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 23-29? BUY No 67¢ $200 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29? BUY No 38¢ $80 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.59 · official $3.59 (match) · 44 history records