Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70bf…4ea1 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$261 (-31%) realized −$257 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$138
other 5% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -22.6% -29.9% 38% 38% -37.1%
≤30d 8 -22.6% -29.9% 38% 38% -37.1%
≤90d 8 -22.6% -29.9% 38% 38% -37.1%
all 8 -22.6% -29.9% 38% 38% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 38% -37.1%
10% -36.6% 38% -43.1%
15% -42.8% 38% -48.6%
20% -48.4% 25% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$73 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$257
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 54¢ 52¢ $139 $135 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $56 +$85 +150%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $45 −$44 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $33 +$12 +35%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $52 −$47 -90%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $31 −$18 -58%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $202 −$199 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $111 +$91 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $141 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) SELL Bergs 100¢ $141 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 42¢ $18 2h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 38¢ $39 2h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $45 45h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 84¢ $45 45h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 61¢ $33 46h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 24¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Tereza Valentova 3¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 17¢ $59 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 30¢ $52 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 24¢ $94 2d
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone SELL Giorgia Pedone 13¢ $13 2d
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Giorgia Pedone 30¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $202 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $202 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.05 · official $135.05 (match) · 17 history records