Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x70bf…1060 other 8 markets active 9h ago coverage 129d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$545 (+23%) realized +$545 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 129d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$562
sports 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -58.3% -62.3% 33% 17% +12.5%
≤30d 6 -58.3% -62.3% 33% 17% +12.5%
≤90d 6 -58.3% -62.3% 33% 17% +12.5%
all 8 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 25% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 25% +10.7%
10% -31.2% 25% +0.1%
15% -37.8% 25% -9.5%
20% -43.9% 12% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$12 · ×16.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.81 per $1 lost it wins $9.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage129d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,159 +$494 +43%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,086 +$83 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $55 −$34 -62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 08 $6 +$3 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,653 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $150 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,169 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $887 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $199 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs SELL MOUZ 7¢ $16 129d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY MOUZ 22¢ $50 129d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 7¢ $1 129d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 23¢ $9 129d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 13¢ $5 129d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs SELL MOUZ 30¢ $5 129d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY MOUZ 30¢ $5 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records