Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70bd…3ecf other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$208 (-27%) realized −$566 · open +$358
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$143
sports 46% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 25% -49.2%
≤30d 24 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 25% -49.2%
≤90d 24 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 25% -49.2%
all 24 -23.5% -30.8% 25% 25% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 25% -49.2%
10% -37.4% 25% -54.0%
15% -43.4% 25% -58.5%
20% -49.0% 21% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$358
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)24 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 0¢ 100¢ $0 $176 +$176 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 0¢ 100¢ $0 $82 +$82 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 0¢ 100¢ $0 $52 +$52 (+0%)
Argentina to win the second half? Yes 0¢ 46¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 0¢ 24¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 +$36 +238%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$37 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$12 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6m
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 6m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 39m
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 39m
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $51 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 32h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 31¢ $21 32h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 41h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 44h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 3¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Exact Score: Canada BUY 4¢ $51 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.49 · official $358.50 (match) · 48 history records