Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x70bc…855e other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$484 (-14%) realized −$614 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$683per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 602d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$891
politics 29% +$630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -42.2% -47.7% 50% 50% -53.7%
≤30d 2 -42.2% -47.7% 50% 50% -53.7%
≤90d 2 -42.2% -47.7% 50% 50% -53.7%
all 4 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 50% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 50% -27.0%
10% -42.9% 25% -34.0%
15% -48.4% 25% -40.4%
20% -53.5% 25% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$511 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$1,488
Realized−$614
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage602d
Avg bet$683
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1,359 $1,488 +$130 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 06 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $993 +$630 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $392 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,002 6d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,015 418d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,623 600d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 57¢ $993 602d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,488.50 · official $1,490.58 (match) · 15 history records