Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
70 0x70bc…2041 world 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+1%) realized +$87 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%47W / 61L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$16
14 days+$25
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$74
other 31% +$6
politics 10% +$1
sports 8% +$5
crypto 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 11% -8.7%
≤30d 36 +57.0% +42.1% 44% 11% -8.8%
≤90d 50 +41.4% +27.9% 44% 10% -9.0%
all 108 +19.9% +8.4% 44% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 6% -9.0%
10% -1.9% 2% -17.7%
15% -11.4% 2% -25.7%
20% -20.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses47 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage470d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $229 −$3 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $198 +$34 +17%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $419 −$17 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $189 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $165 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $336 +$3 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $159 +$10 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $84 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $610 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $130 +$3 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $75 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $179 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $402 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $403 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $934 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $222 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $21 −$1 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $205 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $311 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 31 $218 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $438 −$21 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $190 +$3 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $216 +$19 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $154 +$21 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $120 +$20 +17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $176 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $8 +$2 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $51 +$7 +13%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $199 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 02 $2 $0 +7%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $24 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $17 −$2 -9%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $94 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $1,061 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $1,176 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $89 +$4 +5%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $926 +$7 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $210 −$2 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $1,052 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $1,182 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $185 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $221 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $49 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $39 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $137 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $229 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $159 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $70 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $99 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $100 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $27 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $44 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $82 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $78 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $221 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $164 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $171 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $19 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $143 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $165 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $44 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $136 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.21 · official $34.49 · 470 history records