Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70b4…6815
sports · 235 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$281
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses101 / 100
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions34
Markets (closed)201 / 235
History coverage144d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 34 History 201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$19
14 days−$7
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Alliance 85¢ 86¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 79¢ 76¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Leo Team 69¢ 72¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 72¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 71¢ 70¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Ursa 70¢ 69¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) illwill 65¢ 68¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) 1WIN 62¢ 62¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 64¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Under 47¢ 96¢ $4 $9 +$4 (+105%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+138%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ 96¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+147%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 60¢ 62¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 61¢ 62¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Infinite 60¢ 73¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+104%)
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) KOLESIE 63¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 55¢ 55¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 54¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $47 +$6 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 13 $9 +$5 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +129%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$5 +134%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$5 +180%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$9 +129%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $18 +$5 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +83%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 13 $18 +$5 +26%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $9 +$6 +72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +129%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $15 +$2 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +158%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 +$8 +148%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs OLDBOYS- (+1.5) Jun 12 $8 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$4 +165%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$5 +226%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$5 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$5 +197%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $23 +$5 +21%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$5 +109%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $13 +$5 +36%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$5 +44%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $7 +$5 +70%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$5 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$24
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY illwill 65¢ $9 4m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 34m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $5 34m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10 34m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $4 49m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10 49m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $3 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $12 1h
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 79¢ $18 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $7 1h
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Infinite 60¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 85¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 38¢ $3 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $6 1h
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY Ursa 70¢ $12 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 85¢ $28 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 46¢ $4 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $9 3h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) BUY 1WIN 62¢ $3 3h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) BUY 1WIN 62¢ $6 4h
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $6 4h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 46¢ $4 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 52¢ $5 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $13 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $4 7h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 69¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 54% -7.4%
≤30d 132 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 52% -10.9%
≤90d 132 +0.9% -8.7% 52% 52% -10.9%
all 201 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 50% -12.7%
10% -18.4% 47% -21.0%
15% -26.3% 44% -28.7%
20% -33.5% 40% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.75 · official $280.76 (match) · 503 history records