Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70b2…5805
sports · 437 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$695 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$772 · open −$53
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,219
Realized+$772
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses170 / 199
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions68
Markets (closed)369 / 437
History coverage48d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 68 History 369 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$0
14 days+$806
30 days+$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $130 $124 −$6 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $97 $91 −$5 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $79 $70 −$8 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $63 $58 −$5 (-8%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 51¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$2 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+8%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $36 $27 −$10 (-26%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+20%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 12¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 +$47 +71%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +134%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 −$13 -44%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$37 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $70 +$30 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 −$2 -12%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +82%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +56%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $33 +$17 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $20 +$10 +54%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$4 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $23 +$17 +73%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $6 +$4 +73%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $12 +$8 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$10 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $40 +$6 +14%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 08 $16 −$16 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $11 −$10 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $260 +$2 +1%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $116 +$22 +19%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $14 −$14 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 07 $45 −$44 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$560
other 34% +$383
world 6% −$37
crypto 5% −$108
politics 3% −$39
tech 1% +$18
economics 1% −$37
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% −$6
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 28m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 29m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 29m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 29m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 32m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 32m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 33m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 33m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $15 33m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 34m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 34m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 35m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $2 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 22h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $2 25h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 25h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 32h
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 33h
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 33h
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -10.1% -18.6% 42% 42% -9.5%
≤30d 169 +5.7% -4.4% 49% 44% +4.9%
≤90d 369 -4.0% -13.1% 46% 36% +0.6%
all 369 -4.0% -13.1% 46% 36% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 36% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 32% -9.0%
15% -29.0% 28% -17.8%
20% -36.0% 25% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.01 · official $1,219.45 (match) · 1512 history records