Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

70
0x70b1…73b2
sports · 1536 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$666 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$633 · open −$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$223
Realized−$633
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses877 / 650
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1527 / 1536
History coverage218d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 9 History 1527 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 82¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 69¢ 80¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 36¢ 18¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 10¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Thunder 49¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Nets vs. Nuggets Nets 35¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Thunder 41¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5 Under 30¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 26¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Zverev 16¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? No 26¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05? No 25¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Suns vs. Nets Nets 27¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-12.5) San Diego State Aztecs 49¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-02-04? No 58¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $29 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 +$3 +16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $50 +$8 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $22 −$22 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $65 −$20 -30%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $30 $0 +1%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +2%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $31 +$55 +180%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $30 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $20 +$9 +45%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw? May 15 $31 −$31 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw? May 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? May 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-16? May 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? May 08 $31 −$30 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? May 02 $30 +$71 +238%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $30 +$21 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$247
other 33% −$403
world 6% −$262
crypto 2% −$56
politics 1% −$20
economics 1% −$111
culture 1% −$38
finance 1% −$7
tech 0% −$13
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $30 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 98¢ $30 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $5 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $25 9d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 13d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 13d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 69¢ $20 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $20 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 15d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 98¢ $30 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 98¢ $30 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 97¢ $30 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $30 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 40 -6.7% -15.6% 80% 12% -14.4%
≤90d 237 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 32% -9.8%
all 1527 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 46% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 46% -10.8%
10% -20.7% 37% -19.4%
15% -28.3% 30% -27.2%
20% -35.4% 24% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.20 · official $223.21 (match) · 3500 history records