Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70ae…31bc sports 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,083 (+14%) realized +$3,182 · open −$99
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%37W / 46L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$5,144
other 45% −$1,005
crypto 4% +$115
economics 2% −$450
politics 2% +$47
culture 1% −$250
finance 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 50% -13.9%
≤30d 7 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 43% -39.5%
≤90d 12 +15.6% +4.6% 42% 42% +87.9%
all 83 -5.3% -14.4% 45% 41% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 41% +7.8%
10% -22.6% 40% -2.5%
15% -30.0% 33% -11.9%
20% -36.9% 29% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +108% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$161 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$1,469
Realized+$3,182
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses37 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage277d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,518 $1,469 −$50 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $312 +$142 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$69 +68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 +$100 +197%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $241 −$235 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $352 −$345 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $985 +$4,127 +419%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $203 +$148 +73%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $293 −$290 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $218 −$216 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $255 −$37 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $860 −$860 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $300 +$7 +2%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 05 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $500 +$225 +45%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $230 −$230 -100%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Feb 01 $400 +$88 +22%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 Feb 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken Jan 30 $200 +$176 +88%
Spread: Warriors (-8.5) Jan 29 $250 +$224 +90%
Spread: Warriors (-9.5) Jan 29 $300 +$325 +108%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $300 +$350 +117%
Panthers vs. Jets Jan 27 $150 +$150 +100%
Spread: Warriors (-6.5) Jan 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jan 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Bruins Jan 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5 Jan 22 $100 +$100 +100%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Jan 22 $200 +$58 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 21 $300 −$4 -1%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Jan 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 Jan 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Heat vs. Kings Jan 21 $150 +$100 +67%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 21 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5 Jan 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 04 $50 +$52 +104%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 04 $1,100 +$329 +30%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 21? Nov 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Raptors vs. 76ers Nov 20 $100 −$42 -42%
Warriors vs. Heat Nov 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? Nov 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 3m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $312 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $36 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $300 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $298 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $487 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $391 12d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $352 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $721 41d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $195 42d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C SELL Alexander Volkov 100¢ $351 42d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 57¢ $203 42d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 61¢ $101 42d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 58¢ $218 42d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 28¢ $218 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $276 42d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 32¢ $255 42d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $531 42d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 61¢ $192 43d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $307 44d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $207 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,468.59 · official $1,468.59 (match) · 275 history records