Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70ac…ceb7 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$8
other 21% $0
finance 18% +$3
politics 4% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 6% -7.5%
≤90d 18 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 6% -7.5%
all 31 -2.1% -11.4% 48% 3% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -7.6%
10% -19.9% 0% -16.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -24.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage460d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $1 $0 +7%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $73 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $51 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 −$1 -18%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $8 $0 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $45 +$8 +18%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves May 26 $2 $0 +3%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 26 $11 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $1 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $2 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $28 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $21 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $23 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $50 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $51 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $36 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $45 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $25 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records