Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
70 0x70ac…e613 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized −$154 · open +$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%30W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$67
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$124
crypto 5% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 50 +10.5% -0.0% 60% 48% -10.2%
≤90d 50 +10.5% -0.0% 60% 48% -10.2%
all 50 +10.5% -0.0% 60% 48% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 48% -10.2%
10% -9.6% 38% -18.8%
15% -18.3% 32% -26.6%
20% -26.3% 26% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$73 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,103
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses30 / 20
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage23d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage DN SOOPers 65¢ 100¢ $325 $500 +$175 (+54%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Kiwoom DRX 63¢ 62¢ $315 $308 −$8 (-2%)
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY DK 80¢ 74¢ $240 $224 −$16 (-7%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage LOS 65¢ 100¢ $47 $72 +$25 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $393 −$391 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $166 −$162 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $87 +$113 +130%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$215 +266%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $353 +$201 +57%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $175 +$41 +24%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$164 +464%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $211 +$44 +21%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $62 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $185 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $107 +$92 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $91 −$90 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $150 +$6 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $254 +$119 +47%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $119 −$119 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $326 +$44 +14%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $327 +$32 +10%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $7 +$4 +48%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $90 +$69 +76%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $54 +$9 +17%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$38 +38%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $52 +$8 +15%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $249 −$29 -12%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $73 −$72 -99%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $64 −$64 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $243 +$6 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $68 +$12 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $62 −$12 -20%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $56 +$14 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $38 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $20 +$57 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$10 +100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $35 +$25 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$10 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 63¢ $175 8m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 63¢ $2 13m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 63¢ $140 13m
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 80¢ $241 15m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 65¢ $328 55m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 65¢ $48 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $15 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $16 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $4 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $10 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $4 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $6 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $69 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $16 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $57 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 80¢ $195 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 23¢ $109 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 45¢ $57 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 100¢ $200 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 43¢ $87 12d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD 21¢ $43 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 100¢ $296 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 27¢ $81 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 97¢ $271 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $180 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $16 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 23¢ $45 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 41¢ $83 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 47¢ $238 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 14¢ $74 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,103.05 · official $1,103.05 (match) · 164 history records