Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70a9…6f76 sports 1656 markets active 8h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (180 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$389 (+4%) realized +$389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%1108W / 510L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day180.4pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$732
7 days−$26
14 days+$506
30 days+$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,629
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (180 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1090 -1.6% -10.9% 64% 63% -9.9%
≤30d 1618 +4.5% -5.5% 68% 67% -5.0%
≤90d 1618 +4.5% -5.5% 68% 67% -5.0%
all 1618 +4.5% -5.5% 68% 67% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover180.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 67% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 60% -14.1%
15% -22.8% 46% -22.4%
20% -30.3% 32% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1108 / 510
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1618 / 1656
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day180.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1618 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Bol: Miriam Bulgaru vs Iva Primorac Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Kosice: Mathys Erhard vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Little Rock: Dane Sweeny vs Enzo Aguiard Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Chisinau: Francesco Maestrelli vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Clara Tauson vs Daria Snigur Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 65¢ $7 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 63¢ $7 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 7h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 72¢ $1 7h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 72¢ $6 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 83¢ $7 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $0 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $0 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $6 8h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 78¢ $6 9h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 9h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $0 9h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 61¢ $7 10h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 60¢ $7 10h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ $7 10h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 78¢ $3 11h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 78¢ $4 11h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 81¢ $7 11h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $7 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $0 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 12h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 72¢ $7 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 60¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records