Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x70a6…378c other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$611 (+0%) realized +$606 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 113L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,487per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$16
14 days−$194
30 days+$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$462
politics 39% −$103
sports 10% +$212
world 3% +$3
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -9.2% -17.8% 8% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 104 -10.2% -18.8% 9% 5% -9.6%
all 138 -0.6% -10.0% 18% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 13% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 13% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 12% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,699) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$14 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$606
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,487
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $420 $425 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8,168 −$9 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $989 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,931 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,598 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,783 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,379 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,201 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $849 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,373 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,989 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,255 −$3 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 21 $1,303 +$843 +65%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,284 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $2,645 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,913 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $1,906 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $3,244 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,186 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,248 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,250 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $931 24h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $932 27h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,321 43h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,322 45h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $989 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $989 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $420 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,213 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,428 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,430 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,240 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,403 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,405 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,423 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,425 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,154 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 9d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,596 9d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,598 9d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,682 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,684 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,673 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,675 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,687 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.24 · official $425.25 (match) · 436 history records