trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | -25.6% | -32.7% | 47% | 40% | -19.0% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 56% | 44% | -0.1% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 56% | 44% | -0.1% |
| all | 18 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 56% | 44% | -0.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.8% | 44% | -0.1% |
| 10% | -33.8% | 33% | -9.7% |
| 15% | -40.2% | 28% | -18.4% |
| 20% | -46.0% | 22% | -26.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 88¢ | $100 | $107 | +$7 (+7%) |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? | No | 64¢ | 72¢ | $85 | $96 | +$11 (+13%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 67¢ | 48¢ | $20 | $14 | −$6 (-29%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 70¢ | 68¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | No | 90¢ | 88¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$5 | +52% |
| IR Iran to win the second half? | Jun 16 | $1 | +$1 | +52% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$8 | -79% |
| Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? | Jun 16 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $5 | +$4 | +86% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$7 | +44% |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$16 | +158% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: May | Jun 03 | $198 | +$55 | +28% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 03 | $63 | +$7 | +11% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 28 | $192 | +$5 | +3% |