Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
70 0x709d…19db politics 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate78%102W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 18% −$220
politics 17% +$51
crypto 17% −$27
other 14% −$75
sports 11% +$269
tech 8% +$26
world 7% +$6
finance 5% −$4
culture 3% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤90d 16 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 44% -9.0%
all 131 -3.0% -12.2% 78% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 39% -9.0%
10% -20.6% 21% -17.7%
15% -28.3% 11% -25.7%
20% -35.3% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses102 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage334d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Benoît Saint Denis 58¢ 57¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $8 $17 +$8 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $27 +$3 +9%
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $45 +$7 +15%
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el May 09 $152 +$8 +5%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 08 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 04 $68 +$21 +31%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,750 in March? Apr 01 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Mar 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 10 $67 +$3 +4%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 10 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 2 above $130? Mar 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 06 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 5? Mar 06 $57 +$3 +5%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 05 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21? Mar 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 03 $27 −$13 -47%
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Mar 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m? Mar 03 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Noah Wyle win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards Mar 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Will The Studio win Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG A Mar 02 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 01 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $40 +$3 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of February? Feb 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 09 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 09 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 09 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 09 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 06 $307 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 06 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 06 $64 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 06 $15 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 05 $18 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card BUY Benoît Saint Denis 58¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $51 23d
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 42d
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 42d
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 42d
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 42d
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 46d
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 46d
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 46d
Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 46d
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 82¢ $10 47d
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 66¢ $13 48d
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 87¢ $35 48d
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec SELL Yes 65¢ $19 51d
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el BUY No 94¢ $38 51d
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec BUY Yes 68¢ $21 52d
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el BUY No 95¢ $114 52d
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United BUY Yes 98¢ $98 52d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 55d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,750 in March? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 90d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $28 107d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $48 107d
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $19 110d
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 111d
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 111d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 112d
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 112d
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 2 above $130? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 113d
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 2 above $130? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.58 · official $105.58 (match) · 394 history records