Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x709d…f749 crypto 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$236 (-13%) realized −$236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%37W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$119
sports 39% −$52
crypto 16% −$56
politics 2% −$26
world 1% +$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.5% -22.7% 33% 22% -8.8%
≤30d 18 -14.5% -22.7% 33% 22% -8.8%
≤90d 24 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 29% -10.2%
all 127 -32.7% -39.1% 29% 21% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 21% -21.9%
10% -44.9% 18% -29.4%
15% -50.2% 14% -36.2%
20% -55.1% 12% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses37 / 90
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage590d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $120 −$6 -5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $69 −$2 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $124 −$20 -16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$50 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -54%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$9 -66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$10 +82%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$13 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$3 +158%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 14 $2 +$5 +278%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $16 −$14 -89%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $10 +$6 +58%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $11 −$2 -24%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $18 −$16 -88%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $18 +$3 +17%
St. Brieuc: Sebastian Ofner vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $1 −$1 -71%
St. Brieuc: Clement Chidekh vs Sebastian Ofner Feb 28 $5 +$3 +60%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $12 +$11 +92%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Feb 23 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $2 +$4 +176%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 22 $2 $0 +24%
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 22 $1 $0 -6%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francesco Passaro Feb 19 $34 −$1 -2%
Rio Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Feb 18 $31 −$9 -28%
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Zhizhen Zhang Feb 18 $77 +$11 +14%
Will Sri Lanka win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 18 $1 $0 +8%
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Feb 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5) Feb 18 $30 +$15 +52%
Qatar Open: Jesper de Jong vs Andrey Rublev Feb 17 $30 $0 -1%
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Juncheng Shang Feb 17 $15 +$4 +28%
T20 World Cup: England vs Italy (Game 1) Feb 16 $1 −$1 -87%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Ben Shelton Feb 16 $17 +$10 +60%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $31 −$29 -95%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Feb 15 $36 −$16 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $66 0m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $69 6m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $48 7m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 11m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 75¢ $34 12m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 13m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 91¢ $34 44m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 53¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $34 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $69 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $37 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $38 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $53 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $24 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $35 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $135 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $89 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.26 · official $52.26 (match) · 306 history records