Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
70 0x709b…ae96 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$438 (+55%) realized +$440 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$211
sports 38% +$316
world 13% −$54
crypto 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+67.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +85.4% +67.8% 50% 50% +48.3%
≤30d 18 +85.4% +67.8% 50% 50% +48.3%
≤90d 18 +85.4% +67.8% 50% 50% +48.3%
all 18 +85.4% +67.8% 50% 50% +48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.8% 50% +48.3%
10% +51.7% 50% +34.1%
15% +37.1% 44% +21.2%
20% +23.6% 44% +9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +85% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late +79% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$27 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$440
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$54 -53%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$102 +200%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$113 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $48 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $68 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $46 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $153 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.68 · official $117.71 (match) · 35 history records