Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7099…4f56 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$110 (+6%) realized +$101 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$15
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 27% -10.9%
≤30d 38 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 32% -12.0%
≤90d 38 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 32% -12.0%
all 38 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 32% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 32% -12.0%
10% -25.6% 21% -20.4%
15% -32.8% 16% -28.1%
20% -39.3% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage15d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $36 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $35 −$3 -9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $24 −$15 -62%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $91 +$4 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $7 +$9 +120%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$3 -50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 +$3 +25%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 +$3 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $277 +$11 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $38 +$11 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 $0 -18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 $0 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$27 -81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 45¢ $31 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $23 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $508 18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $218 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $219 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $13 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.65 · official $116.65 (match) · 150 history records