Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7097…811c sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-5%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%67W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$91
14 days−$118
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -8.1% -16.9% 66% 66% -3.8%
≤30d 104 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 62% -13.5%
≤90d 104 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 62% -13.5%
all 104 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 62% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 62% -13.5%
10% -22.7% 43% -21.8%
15% -30.1% 31% -29.4%
20% -37.0% 21% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses67 / 37
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage15d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$25 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$16 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $11 +$12 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $84 +$17 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 +$5 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 +$38 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 +$5 +43%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $79 +$20 +25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $74 +$25 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $39 +$9 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $28 +$18 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$15 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $95 −$94 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $142 +$43 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $92 +$33 +36%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $70 +$25 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 −$27 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $37 +$32 +86%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $110 +$20 +18%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $26 +$16 +62%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $8 +$13 +161%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $11 +$7 +62%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $12 +$8 +67%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $42 +$9 +21%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $22 +$16 +72%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $13 +$5 +38%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $45 +$7 +16%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $53 +$18 +33%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $111 −$110 -99%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $51 +$21 +41%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $72 −$71 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $68 +$12 +18%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $37 +$28 +76%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $45 +$10 +21%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $24 −$24 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $99 +$15 +15%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 57m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $23 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $35 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $44 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $11 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $27 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $34 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $22 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $38 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $37 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $12 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $21 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $27 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $7 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $99 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $11 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $14 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $17 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $21 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $27 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $99 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records