Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

70 0x7095…50a4 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$27 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$23

7 days+$21

14 days+$18

30 days+$18

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-33.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-9.4%	-18.1%	56%	56%	-7.3%
≤30d	16	-26.6%	-33.6%	44%	44%	-7.6%
≤90d	16	-26.6%	-33.6%	44%	44%	-7.6%
all	16	-26.6%	-33.6%	44%	44%	-7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.6%	44%	-7.6%
10%	-40.0%	44%	-16.5%
15%	-45.8%	44%	-24.5%
20%	-51.1%	25%	-31.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late -17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$41 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.05 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$248

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions6

Markets (closed)16 / 22

History coverage13d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	44¢	42¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$100	$96	−$4 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	70¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+23%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	89¢	95¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+6%)
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	59¢	56¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$102	+$52	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$102	+$71	+69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$204	+$213	+104%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$202	−$200	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$51	+$22	+43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	+$24	+47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$2	+$1	+50%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline	Jun 12	$2	+$2	+109%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 10	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$51	17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$102	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$204	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$202	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$51	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$51	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$1	8d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	67¢	$2	8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	9d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1	9d
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	BUY Yes	59¢	$1	9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	89¢	$1	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline	BUY Spurs	47¢	$1	11d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	47¢	$1	11d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline	BUY Spurs	47¢	$1	11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY Yes	66¢	$2	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.95 · official $247.95 (match) · 31 history records