Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7095…a191 sports 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-3%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%87W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$38
sports 29% −$15
crypto 10% −$37
world 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.7% -11.9% 38% 38% -15.7%
≤30d 77 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 43% -17.9%
≤90d 127 -18.5% -26.3% 38% 37% -26.7%
all 210 -14.5% -22.7% 41% 40% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 40% -12.0%
10% -30.1% 39% -20.4%
15% -36.8% 35% -28.1%
20% -43.0% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses87 / 123
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)210 / 216
History coverage183d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +258%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -97%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +292%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -52%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$1 +105%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Indonesia (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1 +$2 +172%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 0m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 0m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over $0 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over $0 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 23h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 23h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 26h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner SELL Brazil 99¢ $3 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 355 history records