Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7094…530a politics 145 markets active 16h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-4%) realized −$106 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$122
14 days+$122
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$14
other 33% −$240
world 26% +$16
sports 5% +$123
crypto 2% −$23
finance 1% −$20
tech 1% +$43
economics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +70.8% +54.5% 58% 58% +45.0%
≤30d 26 +70.8% +54.5% 58% 58% +45.0%
≤90d 55 -11.3% -19.8% 33% 31% -56.9%
all 139 +8.4% -2.0% 46% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 42% -13.1%
10% -11.3% 38% -21.4%
15% -19.9% 32% -29.0%
20% -27.8% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 75
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)139 / 145
History coverage182d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 42¢ $54 $45 −$9 (-17%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 86¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+104%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 32¢ 21¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +78%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +474%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Blue wave in 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 03 $20 +$1 +3%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 31 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Trump say "Finish the Job" this week? (March 29) Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "F-35" or "drone" or "helicopter" at least five Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 2+ times during his press conference on Janu Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Christmas Eve service memb Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Mar 26 $29 −$29 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conferenc Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during CNBC interview? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Mar 26 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Mar 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Mar 26 $120 −$120 -100%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Mar 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President e Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on Decemb Mar 26 $40 −$21 -52%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The United Kingdom b Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar- Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 25h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 32¢ $5 30h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 31h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 31h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 39h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 39h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.70 · official $81.21 (match) · 370 history records