Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7094…1589 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$282 (-0%) realized −$263 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%63W / 54L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,111per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$33
14 days−$134
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$338
tech 21% −$33
finance 8% −$9
world 6% −$8
other 3% −$13
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.6% -16.4% 54% 15% -13.7%
≤30d 42 -6.1% -15.0% 38% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 117 -4.5% -13.6% 54% 6% -9.8%
all 117 -4.5% -13.6% 54% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 6% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.4% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$263
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses63 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage71d
Avg bet$1,111
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 38¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$3 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $84 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $104 −$4 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$1 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $150 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $120 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 26 $76,441 −$112 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 25 $201 +$5 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 23 $16,721 −$19 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5) May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 18? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 19 $1 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 19 $10,637 −$14 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $2 $0 +7%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata May 18 $5 $0 +0%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem (Doubles): Corley/Corley vs Hesse/Spi May 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $41 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.