Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7092…a9c8 crypto 533 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$228 (-3%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%329W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 70% 60% -25.5%
≤30d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 70% 60% -25.5%
≤90d 533 -6.8% -15.6% 62% 48% -13.1%
all 533 -6.8% -15.6% 62% 48% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 48% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 30% -21.4%
15% -31.1% 26% -29.0%
20% -37.8% 25% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses329 / 204
Open positions0
Markets (closed)533 / 533
History coverage53d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 533 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $9 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 08 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 08 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 08 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 08 $13 +$12 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 08 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 08 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 08 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 08 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 08 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 08 $32 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 08 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 08 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $27 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 08 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 08 $39 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 08 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 08 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $7 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1657 history records