Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
70 0x7092…3a94 politics 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$2
other 35% −$2
economics 10% $0
world 8% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 69 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 69 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 1% -9.6%
all 69 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage24d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $91 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $327 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $91 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 9d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records